GMM
BTMMRates & Yields
SRCHCurve · spreads · bond screen
US Treasury yield curve · historical overlay
10Y − 2Y spread · 2y history
Bond screening · key ETFs
| ETF | Segment | Dur | Last | 1D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHY1–3Y UST | Govt short | 1.9 | — | — |
| HYGHigh Yield | Credit HY | 3.4 | — | — |
| MUBMuni | Munis | 6.5 | — | — |
| TIPTIPS | Inflation | 6.8 | — | — |
| EMBEM USD | Emerging | 7.1 | — | — |
| IEF7–10Y UST | Govt int | 7.6 | — | — |
| LQDIG Corp | Credit IG | 8.3 | — | — |
| TLT20Y+ UST | Govt long | 16.4 | — | — |
PORTPortfolio Risk · 90d correlations · macro + sectors
VOLEquity & Bond Volatility
MARS
"What happens if X shocks the market?" — estimated % moves per asset
Middle East escalation1 WEEKgeopolitical📚 Literature
Shock: US or Israel strikes Iranian nuclear / energy infrastructure
Hot-conflict shock centred on Strait of Hormuz supply risk. Historical playbook: a 15% crude spike in a week drives SPX down 1-3% as margin compression and risk-off flows dominate. Gold and USD rally as safe havens.
| CL | WTI Crude | +15.0% |
| GC | Gold | +4.0% |
| DXY | US Dollar Index | +1.2% |
| SPX | S&P 500 | -3.0% |
| XLE | Energy Sector | +7.0% |
| XLY | Consumer Disc. | -3.5% |
Taiwan Strait blockade1 MONTHgeopolitical📚 Literature
Shock: PLA declares exercise zones around Taiwan, shipping disrupted
Semiconductor supply shock — TSMC produces ~60% of global leading-edge chips. Tech equities sell off hardest; USD and gold bid on safe-haven flows; commodities diverge (gold up, copper down).
| NDX | Nasdaq 100 | -8.0% |
| XLK | Technology | -11.0% |
| SPX | S&P 500 | -5.0% |
| DXY | US Dollar Index | +2.0% |
| GC | Gold | +3.0% |
| BTC | Bitcoin | -7.0% |
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire1 MONTHgeopolitical📚 Literature
Shock: Confirmed ceasefire or peace deal announced
Risk-on reversal — European equities outperform, natural gas drops as supply fears unwind, gold gives back war premium. USD weakens modestly on reduced haven demand.
| NG | Natural Gas | -12.0% |
| CL | WTI Crude | -5.0% |
| GC | Gold | -2.0% |
| SPX | S&P 500 | +2.0% |
| DXY | US Dollar Index | -1.0% |
Fed emergency 50bp cutINTRADAYnews📚 Literature
Shock: Unscheduled Fed action between meetings
Liquidity-injection shock. 2020-style response: risk assets rally hard, USD drops, gold spikes on real-rate compression. Long-duration bonds rally, curve bull-steepens.
| SPX | S&P 500 | +3.0% |
| NDX | Nasdaq 100 | +4.0% |
| GC | Gold | +2.5% |
| DXY | US Dollar Index | -2.0% |
| BTC | Bitcoin | +6.0% |
| TLT | 20y+ Treasurys | +3.0% |
Core CPI overshoots +30bp1 WEEKnews📚 Literature
Shock: Core CPI prints 30bp above consensus
Hot-inflation shock — repricing of Fed path. Front-end yields jump, duration sells off, USD strengthens, equities decline with rates-sensitive sectors leading lower. Gold mixed on real-rate vs haven tug-of-war.
| SPX | S&P 500 | -2.0% |
| NDX | Nasdaq 100 | -3.0% |
| DXY | US Dollar Index | +1.0% |
| TLT | 20y+ Treasurys | -2.5% |
| XLU | Utilities | -2.0% |
| XLRE | Real Estate | -3.0% |
Tech-sector selloff1 WEEKsector📚 Literature
Shock: XLK drops 10% on earnings / AI disappointment
Mega-cap tech has ~30% weight in SPX, so a 10% XLK drawdown spills directly into broad indices. Crypto and high-beta growth proxies get hit hardest; defensives and staples relatively outperform.
| XLK | Technology | -10.0% |
| NDX | Nasdaq 100 | -8.0% |
| SPX | S&P 500 | -3.5% |
| XLC | Comm Services | -4.0% |
| XLP | Staples | +0.5% |
| BTC | Bitcoin | -6.0% |
Energy spike1 WEEKsector📚 Literature
Shock: WTI +15% in a week (OPEC+ cut or supply shock)
Upstream names rally as margins expand; downstream consumers (autos, airlines, retailers) take the pain. Historically SPX decelerates 1-2% as transportation and consumer read-through dominates.
| CL | WTI Crude | +15.0% |
| XLE | Energy | +8.0% |
| GC | Gold | +2.0% |
| SPX | S&P 500 | -1.0% |
| XLY | Consumer Disc. | -2.5% |
| XLI | Industrials | -1.5% |
Credit spread blowout1 MONTHnews📚 Literature
Shock: HY OAS widens 200bp (recession / default cycle)
Classic risk-off — credit leads, equities follow. HY junk bonds crater, IG underperforms duration-matched Treasurys, equity vol spikes, gold rallies as safe haven. TLT rallies on flight-to-quality.
| HYG | High Yield | -5.0% |
| LQD | IG Corporates | -2.0% |
| SPX | S&P 500 | -6.0% |
| XLF | Financials | -9.0% |
| GC | Gold | +3.0% |
| TLT | 20y+ Treasurys | +4.0% |
+N% = gains-N% = declinesBeta-estimated · Literature-based